Freedom of Movement for Workers after the Western Balkans' Entry into the EU: Will There be Restrictions?

Freedom of movement for workers is one of the four fundamental freedoms of the European Union’s single market. However, its implementation has not been without controversy. Since it has often been associated with, if not equated to, the issue of migration in many member states, it has sparked heated debates that led to a compromise solution. This solution allowed individual member states to restrict this freedom for citizens of new member states for a maximum of seven years, through three transitional phases. The aim was to "buy" additional time, ease Euroscepticism, and manage migration more effectively.

Given that the Netherlands, after Malta, is the most densely populated country in Europe, that it already records a high level of migration, and that it has a Eurosceptic electorate advocating for budgetary restrictions within the EU, it is not surprising that the country is already emphasising the need to consider imposing restrictions on the freedom of movement for workers once the Western Balkan countries become member states.

How did it come to this? Following the general election in 2023 and the formation of a right-wing government in the summer of 2024, the Netherlands’ official position on migration has become significantly more stringent. According to the 2024 coalition agreement, the new Dutch government has announced it will advocate for restrictive measures concerning the freedom of movement for workers in the event of new member states joining.

Although it is not part of the official European agenda, this position carries the weight of a political document and reflects the sentiments of the wider public, as well as part of the political elite in the country. Although the government has since collapsed, this issue is expected to gain increasing importance as the Dutch electorate continues to shift further to the right on the political spectrum.

In such a political climate, the prevailing view is that the freedom of movement for workers from new member states should once again be restricted. The seven-year period previously applied is now seen as the absolute minimum, while there is also consideration of introducing restrictions lasting up to fifteen years.

The Western Balkans as a region with relatively low migration potential

Although the concerns currently dominant in the Netherlands are politically relevant, they are not actually grounded in realistic assessments regarding the true impact of enlargement on the Western Balkans. There are three key reasons why any insistence - whether by the Netherlands or another member state - on imposing restrictions in the context of the Western Balkans would ultimately miss the goals those countries aim to achieve in relation to migration:

• It would not be rational to "waste" political capital on this issue in the context of the Western Balkans, especially considering the size of the region. Unlike previous rounds of enlargement, when the EU’s population increased by around 75 million people - representing an increase of approximately 17 percent of the EU’s total population - in this case, we are talking about a total of around 17 million people. Even in a scenario where all countries in the region become members, this would only represent a four percent increase.
• Unlike the so-called "Big Enlargement", when the number of EU member states nearly doubled in a short period, there is no prospect of such rapid changes now. Instead, the regatta principle is being applied, which in practice means that membership will be granted gradually, in multiple phases, based on merit - in other words, upon completion of all necessary reforms. Given the stark differences in the level of preparedness among current candidates, this implies that the enlargement process in the Western Balkans will be truly gradual and therefore far less significant in migratory terms.
• Unlike previous enlargement rounds, current candidates have been waiting for membership significantly longer, and as they already have free trade agreements with the EU, they have largely aligned themselves with the rules of the single market. With visa requirements already lifted for all countries in the region, and relaxed employment conditions in countries such as Germany, the majority of those who wanted to emigrate have already done so. In other words, no sudden or large-scale migration waves should be expected, such as those recorded after Poland joined the EU.

Is there any reason for concern?

The short answer – no! A mitigating factor in this case is that even if the Netherlands decided to introduce restrictions - whether for a period of seven or even fifteen years - such a measure would in no way be binding on other member states. In other words, the decision to impose restrictions on the freedom of movement for workers remains solely within the jurisdiction of individual member states, meaning that such a restriction would not have universal effect at the level of the entire Union. 

At present, most EU member states actually recognise the need for more intensive cooperation in the field of labour, as they are facing a serious worker shortage. Reports by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta specifically emphasise that freedom of movement for workers - both during the accession process and after membership is achieved - will be one of the key factors in strengthening the competitiveness of the European economy, particularly in the context of negative demographic trends.

In the meantime, it is up to officials from the Western Balkan countries to engage in dialogue with the Netherlands - which, although one of the most important destinations for workers from the region - in order to explain that improving economic integration already during the pre-accession period, instead of restricting labour mobility, could stimulate economic growth and further reduce potential migration pressure. The argument is that deeper economic cooperation, increased foreign investment, and alignment with the EU labour market could create better opportunities within the region, turning emigration into a choice rather than a necessity. Such cooperation could help address the systemic causes of migration, which go beyond access to the labour market, including inadequate social protection, limited professional opportunities, poor governance, and weak rule of law.