Mr. O’Brien visited Serbia in October 2024, meeting with Serbian officials, including President Aleksandar Vučić, to discuss the regional situation. A few months later, he returned to the country, and we asked if he noticed any progress since that last meeting.
"I think it has been good, steady progress," he said.
"Although I visit here every few months, we are in communication constantly. I’ve seen the President and the Foreign Minister in several places since then. What I see on the European path is very good progress on the single market side.
This is with the EU Growth Plan and Serbia’s increased integration into European markets, and now with American companies coming here to be part of Serbia’s growth as part of the European space. It’s been an enormous opportunity for Serbia, and I think the progress is very consistent and good. It takes some hard reforms of the banking system, the way finance operates, the way regulatory structure is put in place. But all of this is moving well.
There is also the effort to join the European Union as an overall political project. In this case, I think the key moment will come in the middle of February.
This involves some political choices about alignment with the EU sanctions and foreign policy and about broader committment. It’s only natural— you want to join the club, the club wants you to obey all the rules. I know the President has spoken a lot with European leaders. Minister Đurić and others have also been very active in engaging in these conversations.
It will be a decision by the Europeans, but I am very hopeful that we will see Serbia take a big step forward in the middle of February."
During December, we spoke extensively about opening Cluster 3. Negotiation positions have been submitted—when do you think this will happen?
"This is an EU decision, but I think they see the importance of Serbia with moving forward with Ukraine, with Serbia, with Kosovo, and the Western Balkans—all paying attention to the entire movement. I think there is an understanding that certain decisions will have to be made, and there are real opportunities here.
What I hear from European leaders is that they would like to see Serbia, from a political standpoint, take real steps to work on some remaining issues with Kosovo and to continue on the course with Bosnia, saying that Bosnia is a separate country and its internal governing arrangements are its business, we support Dayton but beyond that we’ll do nothing.
I think the Serbian government has done a good job of providing some reassurances that Serbia’s path is truly European and that it will make some hard choices needed to move forward. It’s a step by step process, and hopefully we will see progress."
In the Western Balkans, there is often discussion about which country will join the EU first.How would you assess Serbia’s position in the region? Should we aim for so-called frontrunners, or should the entire Western Balkans join the EU together?
"In any race, there are some horses that are quick out of the gate, and then others catch up. My view is that when a country is ready, it should move forward.
But again, I don’t get a vote because I’m American. I think we will see some countries moving forward. I have been very impressed with the EU’s commitment to advancing the integration of the whole region. That’s a new element. For 20 years, Europe somewhat pretended to be interested in expansion and the countries here pretended to be reforming. There has been very real progress over the last 18 to 24 months. That will continue because resolving Western Balkan issues is central to President von der Leyen’s plan for dealing with the region. We’ve seen Montenegro begin closing chapters. For those of us who are EU integration nerds, closing chapters is very significant. The fact that Europe is willing to close some chapters is a sign that this process is picking up speed.
I think Serbia will do very well and that’s important for the region, as Serbia accounts for half of its GDP. It is the most advanced economy and the gateway through which other countries will begin to engage more with European markets. We are encouraging our European partners to work with Serbia, but also for Serbia to continue on its path. I am optimistic."
The United States is a strong supporter of Serbia on its path to the European Union. How would you reflect on the tenure of Ambassador Christopher Hill and his significant efforts to understand Serbia’s perspective and strengthen ties between our countries, laying the foundation for deeper mutual understanding and lasting cooperation?
“I’m a little bit biased because Chris and I have been friends for 30 years, and we’ve worked together and been close even when we weren’t working in the same institution. In a way, he embodies the U.S. - Serbia relationship.
He was here as a child and returned as a young diplomat. He worked on these issues during the most difficult time in the relationship between our two countries. Now he is here and he can reflect on the changes in this society, the opportunities that are available here that weren’t there when he was a kid. I think to have him (as the ambassador) in this last period has been really important, including for me and for Serbia, while sitting in Washington, working with him and 49 other ambassadors. To have a voice I trust and who understands the opportunities in this society has been invaluable. He wants to see Serbia succeed.
I think there is no better credential for an American ambassador."
President Vučić has announced that the country will be ready for EU membership by 2026. Other countries in the region are equally committed to this path. When do you expect the Western Balkan countries to officially become members of the European Union?
“Again, it is a decision for the European Union. I think some leaders in the EU are bit surprised at how quickly the countries here, including the authorities in Belgrade, are willing to move and make hard reforms. So they’ll come to a decision soon.
I don’t want to make a prediction. But I am encouraged that, by doing the work, society will become different and better. Increasing integration on the economic side will make the final decision whether Serbia joins to the EU feel more natural.
And in that context, again, I am optimistic."
