- In the elections in BiH, according to 91 per cent of processed polling stations, Željka Cvijanović won the seat for the Serb member of the Presidency, while Savo Minić won the presidency of Republika Srpska.
- SNSD won the most votes for the National Assembly of RS, while analysts assess that the results confirm strong support for Milorad Dodik's policies in Republika Srpska.
The tenth general elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on Sunday. Based on results from 91 per cent of processed polling stations, Željka Cvijanović won the election for the Serb member of the Presidency, while Savo Minić won the election for President of Republika Srpska.
In the election for the Bosniak member of the Presidency, Denis Bećirović leads, while Darijana Filipović leads in the race for the Croat member. SNSD won the most votes in the election for the National Assembly of RS.
Ambassador and Head of the BiH Mission to the European Union, Obrad Kesić, assesses that the election results showed that the policy of Milorad Dodik and SNSD continues to enjoy strong support in Republika Srpska.
"With a victory of this scale, we can say that Milorad Dodik, Željka Cvijanović, and Savo Minić received a clear mandate from voters to continue this policy, to build a strong and visible Republika Srpska," Kesić told RTS.
He believes that the foreign policy of the authorities in Banja Luka also contributed to the outcome.
According to his assessment, the new balance of power in the Presidency of BiH opens up the possibility for different internal relations within BiH.
"For the first time in a long time, Croats have a legitimate member of the BiH Presidency, and now, together with Mrs Cvijanović, they can return us to what matters most — the foundation of the Dayton Agreement, where Bosnia and Herzegovina, if it is to survive, is a highly decentralised state comprising two entities and three constituent peoples," Kesić emphasises.
"Two-thirds majority possible"
Speaking about the future majority in the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, Kesić notes that we should await the final vote count, but that the results so far point to a convincing majority.
He believes that the result simultaneously places pressure on opposition representatives to act jointly with the governing authorities at the BiH level when it comes to the interests of Republika Srpska.
Who will be the new Prime Minister of Republika Srpska?
When asked who the new Prime Minister of Republika Srpska might be, Kesić says that voters showed whom they want at the elections.
"The people would like that to be Milorad Dodik. That was clearly stated in these elections, as Dodik was present throughout the campaign, and it is clear that this victory is directly tied to his broad support in Republika Srpska," Kesić considers.
Political struggle in Banja Luka, unified stance in Sarajevo
Kesić believes that the government and the opposition should continue their political struggle over economic, social, and other issues, but that they should present a united front in BiH institutions when it comes to the interests of Republika Srpska.
"It would be best for the political struggle between the government and opposition to continue over key economic, social, and political issues, but for there to be a united front in Sarajevo, defining Republika Srpska's position clearly in a way that allows it to decide its own destiny in the future," says Kesić.
He states that, according to his interpretation of the election results, the policy of part of the opposition towards Christian Schmidt was also punished.
"The opposition's contacts with Mr Schmidt and their desire to cooperate with him and enter government at the Bosnia and Herzegovina level were punished. Voters clearly showed that this policy does not have support in Republika Srpska," Kesić claims.
Regarding foreign policy, Kesić expects the continuation of the current course towards Washington and Moscow, as well as further close relations with Belgrade.
"Dodik announced the leading guidelines for Republika Srpska's foreign policy. He thanked President Trump and President Putin for their support, understanding, and respect for the interests of Republika Srpska and the Serb people in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Kesić says.
He points out that Dodik also stressed the importance of Serbia's support.
"It is clear that everything Republika Srpska has achieved over these years could not have been done without immense support from Serbia. He announced that Republika Srpska will return the trust and support that came from Serbia and will, in the future, be a faithful pillar of support for Serbia - from diplomacy and politics to economic cooperation," Kesić states.
Vujinović: Dissatisfaction with political elites among all three peoples
Lower turnout in the BiH elections shows that there is a degree of dissatisfaction with political elites among all three peoples, assesses security studies researcher Nikola Vujinović.
Vujinović says that the key message from voters is already visible from the turnout figure, which, as he states, was almost ten per cent lower than four years ago.
"There is a degree of dissatisfaction with current political elites among all three peoples, and that resulted in turnout being nearly ten per cent lower than four years ago. However, we can break down that political message for each nation individually," Vujinović states.
Regarding the Serb community, Vujinović sees the result as confirmation of support for the policies of Milorad Dodik and SNSD, but also as a message to the opposition.
"In the Serb community, we see strong support for the policies of Milorad Dodik and SNSD. That victory is, among other things, a consequence of the fact that their electorate is more disciplined and turned out to vote," Vujinović says.
He stresses that, on the other hand, a message was sent to the opposition that it needs change.
"It is time for them to wake up from the sleep they have been in for over 15 years and find new ideas and new people," says Vujinović, adding that the results of Stanivuković's list show that "new individuals and parties are gradually emerging".
"A clear and substantial message to Izetbegović"
Speaking about the results among Croat voters, Vujinović assesses that HDZ achieved major success because, as he says, after two or three election cycles, a "genuine representative of the Croat people" is entering the BiH Presidency.
"The fact that two women will be in the Presidency this time is also a significant step for a patriarchal society like Bosnia and Herzegovina," Vujinović states.
Regarding Bosniak voters, he considers the results to have sent an unequivocal message to Bakir Izetbegović.
"We saw what was almost a referendum decision that Bakir Izetbegović should no longer be the person representing SDA. SDA won as a parliamentary party, while its candidate received fewer votes than his own political party. That is a very clear and substantial message to Mr Izetbegović," Vujinović points out.
He also assesses that Denis Bećirović gained a lead of a few percentage points, as he claims, through an "anti-Serb campaign in the final weeks of the election campaign".
"I expect outvoting of the Serb community to cease"
Changes in the composition of the BiH Presidency, according to Vujinović's assessment, could also influence decision-making within that institution.
"This means that the outvoting of the Serb community will stop. Mrs Cvijanović was forced on multiple occasions to invoke a veto on certain decisions, which the Assembly of Republika Srpska then had to confirm, because representatives of the Bosniak and Croat communities were outvoting her," Vujinović says.
He expects the situation to be different now, pointing to the political closeness between HDZ and SNSD.
"Together, they do not want the Bosniak community outvoting them. The very fact that Bosniaks were unable this time - likely due to these new technical election conditions - to vote in the Croat representative will make the Presidency's conduct and decisions much more palatable to the Serb community and to general stability and unity in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Vujinović assesses.
From the unitarisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards original Dayton
He expects that the change in the BiH Presidency could lead to a shift in political direction.
"I expect, particularly due to this change in the Presidency, that we will now slowly shift direction away from the unitarisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards a return to original Dayton," says Vujinović.
"Original Dayton is a confederation. The entities of Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina form one state, Bosnia and Herzegovina. That means you cannot strip competencies granted by Dayton and the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina from either entity," Vujinović concludes.
(EUpravo zato)
