- North Macedonia is proposing a European mediator for talks with Bulgaria, hoping that this could help unblock its path to the EU. Analysts warn that without a clear mandate and EU support, mediation could merely prolong the deadlock.
- The main obstacle remains the constitutional amendments that would include Bulgarians in the Constitution, which Brussels continues to demand as a condition for progress. The government in Skopje is seeking guarantees that this would not be merely the first in a series of bilateral demands.
After years of political deadlock between Skopje and Sofia, a new idea has entered the debate over North Macedonia’s blocked European path: involving a European mediator in talks with Bulgaria.
The proposal, put forward by North Macedonian officials, comes at a time when both sides continue to insist that they are open to dialogue, while remaining far apart when it comes to the conditions for continuing the accession process.
Whether a mediator could actually change the situation remains an open question.
"Any attempt to unblock North Macedonia’s European integration is welcome, including the idea of a European mediator between Skopje and Sofia," political analyst Dimitar Nikolovski of the Skopje-based Eurothink Institute told IntelliNews in a written statement.
He said that such a mechanism could help restore dialogue and trust if the mediator had a clear mandate and political support from key EU institutions and member states.
However, Nikolovski also pointed to a key risk: mediation could become yet another mechanism for managing the deadlock rather than resolving it.
"The real test will not be whether there will be a mediator, but whether his involvement will bring concrete progress towards unblocking the accession process. Of course, there is a risk that this will become yet another attempt to ‘gloss over’ the process, creating the impression that progress is being made without fundamentally changing the positions of Skopje and Sofia," Nikolovski said, adding that much would depend on the mediator’s mandate, the specific objectives he is expected to achieve and, above all, whether there is political will on both sides to reach a compromise.
Why Is North Macedonia Still Blocked?
North Macedonia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2005. In March 2020, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations, and the first Intergovernmental Conference was finally held in July 2022. The European Commission subsequently launched the screening process, which was completed in December 2023.
However, the formal opening of the negotiations did not mean that North Macedonia could immediately begin opening the negotiating clusters.
Under the negotiating framework adopted by the EU in 2022, North Macedonia committed to constitutional amendments that would include members of other ethnic communities, including Bulgarians, in the Constitution. The European Commission continues to cite the adoption of these amendments as a necessary condition for progress towards opening the first negotiating cluster.
The issue is politically sensitive in North Macedonia, as the current government of Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski maintains that there is no sufficient guarantee that the constitutional amendments will be the last bilateral condition imposed on the country.
Mickoski has proposed that the constitutional amendments be adopted, but that their implementation be postponed until the completion of the accession process and until all EU member states ratify North Macedonia’s accession. His argument is that Skopje needs a predictable guarantee that it will not face additional bilateral demands later in the process.
The EU’s position, however, remains that North Macedonia must fulfil the commitment it undertook under the framework agreed in 2022. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that North Macedonia must amend its Constitution if it wants to continue on its European path.
Sofia’s reaction to the idea of a European mediator has so far been cautious, but not dismissive. On September 25, Bulgaria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it remained open to constructive dialogue with North Macedonia and that it viewed the country’s accession process as a European matter to be addressed by EU institutions within the established procedures.
At the same time, Sofia insists on good-neighbourly relations and the fulfilment of commitments already undertaken, including those stemming from the European consensus of 2022, as well as the implementation of the 2017 Treaty of Friendship and the rights of Bulgarians in North Macedonia.
Why Is the Idea of a Mediator Important?
The idea of a mediator is significant because the problem is no longer simply about finding a technical solution, but also about the deep lack of trust between Skopje and Sofia. Mucunski said that there are currently no functioning talks between the two delegations at the UN, while Mickoski insists on a clearly defined and predictable outcome of the negotiations.
In this context, a European mediator with the support of Brussels and the member states could provide a structured political channel for dialogue, not only on the constitutional amendments but also on the steps that would follow them. North Macedonia’s European path has already been delayed several times due to disputes with neighbouring countries, while the latest deadlock is linked to Bulgarian demands concerning history, identity and the implementation of the 2017 Treaty of Friendship.
The EU ultimately became directly involved in efforts to find a compromise. In 2022, the Council of the EU approved the negotiating framework, and the first Intergovernmental Conference was held in July. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen personally travelled to Skopje and called on MPs to support the revised French proposal. She also stressed that the EU respects the Macedonian language and identity and described good-neighbourly relations as an essential element of enlargement.
The compromise enabled the accession process to formally begin, but at the same time introduced a requirement to amend the Constitution into the subsequent stages of the process. The screening process then progressed and was completed in 2023. Nevertheless, the political process has effectively remained blocked before the opening of the first cluster.
For this reason, the current idea of a mediator should be viewed in a rather unusual context: North Macedonia and the EU have already gone through a complex diplomatic compromise once. What remains unresolved is whether that compromise can now be implemented politically.
Could Things Be Different This Time?
Bulgaria’s latest statement does not reject greater EU involvement. Instead, it explicitly defines North Macedonia’s accession as a European matter and supports the European Commission’s work with candidate countries. This leaves room for greater European involvement, but it does not mean that there is agreement on the substance of the dispute.
For Skopje, the key challenge is the need for stronger European guarantees and a predictable process, while the EU’s existing negotiating framework already contains commitments that North Macedonia has accepted. This creates a paradox: Skopje is seeking a guarantee before taking the next step, while Brussels and Sofia view that step as an already undertaken commitment.
A mediator could bridge this gap if their mandate extended beyond simply bringing the two foreign ministries back to the negotiating table. This is why Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming engagement could be important. If it brings a concrete European initiative or stronger political involvement, the proposal for a mediator could acquire real significance. If it merely reiterates existing positions, the question will remain whether this represents a new mechanism or simply a different way of managing the existing status quo.
(EUpravo zato.rs)
