Geopolitics or Values: How do Serbian Citizens View the European Union?

At a moment when EU enlargement policy is once again high on the political agenda, public opinion in Serbia remains ambivalent, fragmented and sceptical. The study, conducted on a sample of 1,000 respondents, offers an in-depth analysis of public perceptions of the EU, the level of support for membership, and the factors shaping public opinion in Serbia.

A similar pattern emerges in a hypothetical referendum scenario. Among those who would turn out to vote, 41.6% would vote in favour of membership, 32.4% against, while a quarter of respondents remain undecided. In other words, although there is a slight advantage in favour of the European path, it is neither stable nor convincing enough to guarantee a clear outcome. This confirms that currently undecided voters will be the deciding factor in determining the direction of Serbia’s future in the EU.

The current fragmentation can also be explained by the fact that only 6.9% of respondents believe Serbia will achieve EU membership by 2030. In other words, when Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos speaks about admitting new members by the end of the decade, Serbian citizens do not believe this applies to their country.

As for timeframes, one third believe membership is achievable only in 15 years, while a quarter think it is not achievable at all. This level of pessimism should not be overlooked, as it reflects the absence of a credible timeline in the eyes of citizens - something that risks deepening further if the accession process continues at its current pace.

The EU seen as a geopolitical actor, not a community of values

One of the most significant insights of the research concerns how Serbian citizens perceive the EU. As many as 41.6% believe the EU is more interested in its political and economic interests in the region than in democracy and the rule of law. Similar proportions agree with the view that the Union "says one thing but does another", suggesting it acts without consistent principles.

This negative perception is further reinforced by the fact that every second citizen believes the EU does not apply the same rules to all candidate countries. Many also think Serbia is not treated equally compared to other countries, such as Ukraine.

These findings gain additional weight in light of the EU’s concrete geopolitical priorities. While most respondents give a moderate assessment of the EU’s willingness to tolerate internal democratic issues in Serbia in order to preserve its influence or normalise relations with Pristina, the overall perception remains negative. For example, 43.9% of citizens believe that introducing sanctions against Russia is more important to the EU than developing democratic institutions in Serbia. Additionally, 41.8% believe the EU seeks Serbia’s integration primarily to gain access to natural resources such as lithium. All of this helps explain why only a quarter of respondents believe the EU genuinely wants Serbia as a member.

Towards restoring credibility

The CEP findings indicate that Serbia’s European integration process faces not only political and institutional challenges, but also a serious deficit of public trust. On the one hand, the EU must clearly recognise that the current momentum of enlargement policy, as communicated from Brussels, is not perceived in the same way in Serbia. Although support for membership still holds a relative majority, this is not a reason for complacency but a signal for more proactive engagement, especially given that perceptions of the EU’s credibility predominantly range from neutral to negative.

At the same time, the greatest responsibility lies with the domestic authorities. Without genuine political will to prioritise European integration - not merely as a declarative goal - the gap between public attitudes and the European path will continue to widen. This entails not only accelerating substantive reforms in the rule of law, but also systematically, clearly and credibly informing citizens about the tangible benefits of membership. Otherwise, sceptical narratives will continue to dominate the public sphere, limiting the space for stable and sustainable support for accession.