Migration has become a frequent scapegoat for various social issues and is often used to divert attention from existing problems in Western societies. According to Radoš Đurović, director of the Asylum Seekers Protection and Assistance Centre, migrants and refugees are easy targets because they have no one to defend them against such accusations.
(Non)Acceptance of migrants
"Europe has failed the test of integration, especially in terms of accepting migrants. The consequences of this failure have led to tensions in European countries, but these tensions are often attributed to the bad actions or ill intentions of those who have migrated. This creates a major problem, as it fuels animosity among the local population, which has started developing negative attitudes towards migration," Đurović told EUpravo Zato.
He explained that political elites in Western European countries attempt to channel public dissatisfaction by blaming migration as the root cause of their problems.
"This sophisticated rhetoric, which stirs animosity towards migration, has its effects and resonates beyond Western Europe. These ideas are spreading to our region as well. This certainly strengthens political parties and institutions that seek to exploit the topic for political gain.
However, none of this has fundamentally taken an extreme anti-migrant direction. When we talk about our citizens, I would say it is important to understand that migrants are fleeing war. We, too, have experienced wars, bombings, and geopolitical conflicts. Those arriving are not primarily economic migrants; they have survived terrible hardships. On the other hand, hostility is growing towards those who come as legal labour migrants, whom the country has been actively recruiting in recent years. For example, more than 100,000 work permits were issued to foreign nationals last year, and this trend is expected to continue," explained Đurović, who shared his 18 years of field experience with us.
"We can expect a radicalisation of the narrative"
According to Đurović, growing hostility towards labour migrants stems from fears that local people will lose their jobs and that working conditions will deteriorate.
In this context, he says, we can expect a radicalisation of the narrative within political parties, the media, and among journalists. In the future, those arriving - especially refugees and regular migrants - will likely be treated even worse.
"The attitude towards them will become increasingly harsh, and their living conditions will deteriorate. This is particularly evident in Hungary and other Central European countries, which are leading in this trend. Additionally, we cannot ignore Germany and Austria in this narrative," Đurović concludes.
Demographic crisis
Dr Aleksa Filipović, a research associate at the Institute for European Studies, explains that the reason migration is a key issue in political campaigns, at least in Europe, is quite simple - demographic decline.
"Extremely low birth rates will, of course, pose a major problem for the overall economic situation in the future. We will have a smaller working-age population, which is a significant blow to economic growth. European countries are primarily trying to address this issue by attracting immigrants who, in theory, would not only help fill labour shortages but also have higher birth rates compared to the local population. This is largely because they come from societies that uphold traditional values," Filipović says.
According to him, since the 1960s, Western societies have adopted new values, including individualism, feminism, and non-traditional relationships. These changes have led to smaller family sizes, later marriages, and fewer children, contributing to Europe’s demographic crisis.
He notes that the sudden influx of migrants during the 2015 crisis shocked Europe, as many countries were already struggling to integrate previous waves of immigrants. While many were fleeing war, others arrived seeking social benefits without the intention of working or integrating.
"However, migrants who are already receiving financial assistance have little motivation to integrate. This has led to increased crime, ethnic gangs, terrorist attacks, and the formation of parallel societies and ghettos in cities such as Brussels and Paris. The problems are particularly severe in Sweden, Germany, France, and England. Crime linked to migrant backgrounds has become so serious that Denmark introduced border controls with Sweden to curb the movement of criminals," our source explains.
Migration policy was a central issue for Germany's right-wing parties during the election campaign, while centrist parties also treated it as a top priority. Judging by the results - especially those of the far-right AfD - it is clear that this issue is important to many Germans.
"That was honestly to be expected, especially in light of the recent terrorist attacks in Germany, where the perpetrators were individuals of immigrant backgrounds. Under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany pursued an open-door policy, and not everyone in Germany was satisfied with that. This was particularly evident in the results of the AfD, which has now become a serious political force within Germany and will certainly continue to achieve good electoral results in the future, especially with growing economic, social, and political instability in the country," explains the expert, adding that it is not just the current German elections where immigration has been one of the main issues in the campaign.
According to him, in almost all parliamentary elections in recent years, this has been one of the key electoral topics.
"During the German elections in 2017 and 2021, the issue of migration and Germany’s immigration policy was a crucial election topic, on which the AfD actually achieved strong results. This issue was also significant in the French elections in 2017 and 2022, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally gained substantial support precisely through aggressive anti-immigration rhetoric. In Italy, in both 2018 and 2022, advocating for strict anti-immigration policies brought significant voter support to Matteo Salvini and his Northern League, as well as to Giorgia Meloni and Brothers of Italy," says our interlocutor.
He also cites Scandinavia as an example, where the issue of stricter immigration policies was long considered a political taboo.
"However, with the rise in popularity of right-wing populist parties such as the Sweden Democrats and the Finns Party, this topic has not only entered political discourse, but conservative and even some social democratic parties have adopted anti-immigrant rhetoric. Denmark is an excellent example, where centre-left and centre-right parties formed a coalition that implemented a very strict immigration policy, which had a highly negative impact on the support for the right-wing populist Danish People's Party, which lost its political and rhetorical monopoly on this issue," emphasises Filipović.
He also believes that in future parliamentary elections across Europe, this will in most cases remain an important issue and will not lose relevance.
Anti-migrant rhetoric
Anti-migrant rhetoric is something that is increasingly heard in Europe, with similar tones of support coming from across the Atlantic.
What kind of outcome can be expected?
"I honestly do not see any positive outcome to all of this unless, in the coming decades, more is done to integrate migrants into societies and systems or unless states make greater efforts to increase birth rates among their native populations, thereby eliminating the need to attract migrants. This would require a shift towards highly conservative political options and social values. I do not think this is a realistic expectation for at least the next decade, but sooner or later, it will inevitably become a pressing issue, which is already evident in the growing support for right-wing political parties," says Dr Aleksa Filipović.
The strengthening of right-wing forces and populist rhetoric is typical in major crises
The strengthening of right-wing forces and populist rhetoric, whether left- or right-wing, typically occurs during periods of major crises, uncertainty, and problems, both within individual countries and in times of international political instability.
"If we look at Europe, we can conclude that the continent has been in a state of near-permanent instability since the onset of the global economic crisis in late 2007. This was followed by the war in Georgia in 2008, the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine in 2014, the outbreak of civil war in eastern Ukraine, the major migrant crisis of 2015, the global COVID-19 pandemic, the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, the introduction of comprehensive sanctions against Russia, the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2, and the NATO-Russia conflict on Ukrainian territory. Over the past two decades, Europe has perhaps had only a few years of respite between two crisis periods," explains the expert.
He also points out that European voters are willing to support political parties that have not yet had the opportunity to be part of ruling coalitions and that, unlike established parties, at least offer some kind of solution to mounting problems, even if those solutions are radical in their implementation.
A similar situation in the United States
"In addition to economic problems and an extremely aggressive foreign policy characterised by international interventionism, the U.S. is also facing issues with illegal immigration, a weakening economy, the consequences of the pandemic, and so-called culture wars, which escalated after the killing of George Floyd and the rise of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. Some of the first decisions of Trump's second administration were related to restoring more conservative values within the U.S., including a presidential order defining gender strictly as male and female, abandoning the DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) agenda in government administration, security services, and the military, and enforcing stricter immigration policies.
Wherever there are one or more crises affecting the quality of life, personal security, or economic survival of a country’s citizens, combined with political elites being incapable of addressing these problems, strong conditions are created for significant support for political parties, movements, and charismatic politicians from the right-wing political spectrum," concludes Dr Aleksa Filipović, research associate at the Institute for European Studies.